The 90% loss-deduction cap is pushing US bettors toward prediction markets
A tax change that took effect this year creates a structural gap between licensed sportsbooks and their fastest-growing competitor - and the gap runs the wrong way for licensed operators.
One Big Beautiful Bill Act caps gambling loss deductions at 90% from the 2026 tax year: a player winning $100,000 and losing $100,000 owes federal tax on $10,000 never kept
The cap tracks volume, not profit - it lands hardest on high-frequency players, the most valuable segment
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The 90% figure sits in the statute, not the regulation, so the IRS cannot remove it; every speaker at the July hearing opposed it including Rep. Dina Titus and the AGA
Repeal stalled: FAIR BET Act and FULL HOUSE Act stuck in committee, Senate unanimous consent blocked 2025, House Rules declined NDAA attachment in January, Titus filed a discharge petition
Asymmetry: gambling winnings taxed gross; event contracts on a CFTC-regulated venue may qualify for section 1256 net treatment - IRS has issued no ruling or guidance
Implication for operators: High-volume US bettors now face a known tax penalty on the sportsbook side and an open question on the prediction-market side. Uncertainty favours the challenger - licensed operators carry a quantified disadvantage against a competitor whose tax treatment nobody has ruled on.
Cantor Fitzgerald brings institutional block trading to prediction markets
The first full-service investment bank to offer institutional block trading in event contracts - and the framing in the announcement is about hedging, not speculation.
Cantor acts as Introducing Broker, arranging institutional-size block trades at a single price through Kalshi's block trading framework, away from the central order book
Partnered with Susquehanna Predictions, the first quantitative trading firm to build a dedicated prediction-markets business
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Run inside Cantor's Global Markets division under Co-CEOs Pascal Bandelier and Christian Wall; Kalshi first, additional venues expected to follow
Susquehanna thesis: next material growth area is large institutional risk transfer, pricing bespoke contracts for counterparties hedging risk currently unserved by traditional insurance markets
Implication for operators: This is the clearest signal yet that prediction markets are being built out as a hedging instrument rather than a betting product. If institutional risk transfer becomes the volume driver, the addressable market stops being benchmarked against sportsbook handle and starts being benchmarked against derivatives and specialty insurance - and the "this is just gambling" argument state AGs are running gets materially harder to sustain.
Optimove: Spain's casino betting lead over Europe widens further
Twelve-month tracking across Greece, Italy, Spain and the UK on a 6.2m monthly active player base shows Spain pulling away on casino stakes while sports betting fell everywhere after the World Cup.
Spain casino betting $3,514/month in July, up from $3,090 in June - highest in the 12-month window against a $3,133 trailing average
Deposits invert the ranking: Greece leads at $548/month, Italy $306, Spain $254 (its lowest of the year), UK $253
Retention: Italy and Spain both 80% in July, narrowing an earlier gap; Greece most stable at 83%
Sports betting amounts fell in all four markets on summer holidays plus the end of the World Cup
Implication for operators: Spain shows the highest casino stakes in Europe on the lowest deposits of the four markets - that combination means high recycling of the same deposited funds, not high-value customers. Operators benchmarking Spain on betting volume alone will overestimate the market's revenue quality.